MoonWatch — Asymmetric Signal Intelligence

Welcome to MoonWatch

Your asymmetric signal intelligence platform — built to surface opportunities where potential upside far exceeds downside risk.

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Best first step: Set your Freedom Number using the calculator in the right sidebar. Every opportunity in the feed will then show exactly how it moves you toward your goal.

🎯

New here? Look for the 🎯 Take the tour button at the top of your Getting Started checklist (bottom-right of the dashboard). It runs a 5-step interactive walkthrough of the core features — takes about 2 minutes. You can also restart it any time from the Feature tour button below.

🔭 What MoonWatch Does

MoonWatch continuously scans markets — crypto, equities, and real estate — using AI to identify asymmetric opportunities: situations where the potential reward is disproportionately large relative to the risk involved. Every opportunity is scored, explained in plain English, and tied back to your personal financial goal.

🗺️ Your Dashboard at a Glance

Stat Strip — Live counts of opportunities, high-conviction plays, average AI-estimated upside, and tracked catalysts.
Opportunity Feed — Ranked list of investments that meet the asymmetric criteria. Click any row to see the full thesis.
Conviction Breakdown — The 5-dimension score for whichever opportunity you have selected.
Catalyst Alerts — Upcoming events that could trigger price movement.
Macro Briefing — Weekly AI summary of the macro environment affecting your opportunities.
AI Analyst — Chat with the AI about any opportunity in plain language.
Freedom Calculator — Track your progress toward work-optional status.

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

MoonWatch is a research and education tool, not a financial advisor. All scores, theses, and analysis are for informational purposes only. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial professional before investing.

Restart onboarding tour

Re-run the goal selection flow and reset your Getting Started checklist.

Feature tour

Step-by-step walkthrough of the 5 core features — Freedom Calculator, Opportunity Feed, AI Analyst, Signal Scanner, and Performance Tracker.

Finding Your First Opportunity

The Opportunity Feed is the heart of MoonWatch — here's how to get the most from it.

1️⃣ Browse the Feed

The main feed shows all current opportunities ranked by Conviction Score (highest first). Each row shows the asset name, a brief thesis, its asset class chip, investment horizon badge, score, and AI-estimated upside.

2️⃣ Use the Horizon Tabs

Filter opportunities by time horizon:

All — Every opportunity regardless of horizon.
Act Now — Short-term catalysts; expect movement in days to weeks.
Long-Term — Multi-month to multi-year structural plays.
IPO / New — Upcoming IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, and recent spinoffs.
Watchlist — Only opportunities you've bookmarked.

3️⃣ Read the Thesis

Click any opportunity row to expand the full investment thesis on the right panel. Toggle "Plain English" for a jargon-free summary. The Conviction Breakdown panel shows how the 5 dimensions are scored.

4️⃣ Bookmark What Interests You

Hover over any opportunity row and click the bookmark icon (🔖) to save it to your Watchlist for easy reference later. Saved items persist across sessions.

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Data is refreshed on every page load and on demand via the ↻ Refresh button. The AI rescans current market conditions each time, so opportunities and scores may change.

Setting Your Freedom Number

Your Freedom Number is the portfolio value at which your investments cover your living expenses — making work optional.

🎯 What Is a Freedom Number?

Your Freedom Number is calculated as: Annual Expenses ÷ Safe Withdrawal Rate. At a 4% withdrawal rate, you need 25× your annual expenses invested. For example, if you spend $60,000/year, your Freedom Number is $1,500,000.

⚙️ How to Set It

In the Freedom Calculator panel (right sidebar on the Dashboard):

Enter your Freedom Number (your target portfolio value).
Enter your Current Portfolio value today.
Click Save My Goal →

MoonWatch saves this to your account and uses it to calculate impact percentages on every opportunity.

📊 Freedom Impact on Opportunities

Once your goal is set, each opportunity in the feed shows a Freedom Impact chip — the percentage of the gap between your current portfolio and your Freedom Number that the AI-estimated upside could close, assuming a notional investment size. This keeps every opportunity grounded in your real financial journey.

Dashboard Overview

The main Dashboard is your command center. Here's what each element does.

📊 Stats Strip

Four live counters across the top:

Opportunities Found — Total unique plays identified in the current AI scan.
High Conviction — Opportunities scoring 85 or above — the strongest signals.
Avg Upside (AI est.) — Mean AI-estimated price target across all opportunities. Informational only — not a guarantee.
Catalysts Tracked — Number of upcoming market events being monitored.

🔄 Refresh Button

The ↻ Refresh button (top right of the main content area) triggers a fresh AI scan of current market conditions. This re-scores opportunities and updates catalysts. The timestamp shows when data was last fetched.

📰 Ticker Strip

The scrolling ticker at the very top of the page displays live prices for key assets across crypto, equities, and commodities — giving you instant market context without leaving the dashboard.

🗂️ Main Navigation Tabs

Below the header, the main nav tabs switch between the major features:

Dashboard — The main opportunity feed and all sidebar panels.
Portfolio Advisor — AI-powered allocation recommendations. Premium
Performance Tracker — Log and track your signal trades over time.
Custom Signal Scanner — Scan any theme or sector for opportunities.
Is This Asymmetric? — Analyze any specific investment. Premium

Opportunity Feed

The ranked list of all current asymmetric opportunities identified by the AI. Updated on every refresh.

🏷️ Reading an Opportunity Row

Each row contains:

Horizon Badge — Red "Act Now" or Blue "Long-Term".
Asset Class Chip — Crypto, Equity, or Real Estate.
Name — The investment (ticker, token, or asset name).
Thesis — One-to-two sentence rationale. Toggle "Plain English" for a simplified version.
Meta row — Key context tags (sector, catalyst type, market cap, etc.).
Score — Conviction Score out of 100, color-coded green/amber/blue by tier.
↑ Upside — AI-estimated potential upside multiplier (e.g. 5–15×). Not a prediction or guarantee.
↓ Downside — AI-estimated max drawdown if the thesis fails (e.g. 20–35%). Shown in red below the upside figure.
R/R badge — Risk/reward ratio derived from the low end of the upside range divided by the worst-case downside (e.g. R/R 11:1). A higher number means the reward potential is larger relative to the risk. See Concepts → Asymmetric Investing for how this is calculated.
Signal age — How old the AI scan is that generated this opportunity (e.g. 2h ago). All cards in a batch share the same timestamp. Click ↻ Refresh to get a fresh scan.

🔖 Watchlist Bookmarking

Hover any row to reveal the bookmark icon (top-right of the row). Click it to save the opportunity to your Watchlist. Saved opportunities persist across sessions and are synced to your account. Bookmarked items turn the icon blue and are visible in the Watchlist tab.

🏦 IPO / New Listings Tab

The IPO / New tab filters for upcoming and recent market entries:

IPO — Traditional initial public offering.
Direct Listing — Company lists directly without a new share issuance.
SPAC — Special Purpose Acquisition Company merger.
Spinoff — Subsidiary separated from parent company.

Each IPO row also shows stage: Pre-IPO, Upcoming, Recent, Lock-up Period.

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Click a row to select it — the Conviction Breakdown and AI Analyst panels on the right update to reflect the selected opportunity.

Catalyst Alerts

Upcoming events that could trigger significant price movement in tracked assets.

⚡ What Is a Catalyst?

A catalyst is a specific, time-bound event that has high probability of moving an asset's price. Examples include: earnings reports, Fed rate decisions, token unlocks, product launches, regulatory rulings, and partnership announcements. MoonWatch identifies catalysts from news, filings, and scheduled events and displays them with countdown timers.

🗓️ Reading the Catalyst Panel

Each catalyst row shows:

Day counter — Days until the event. Turns red for events within 7 days.
Name & description — What the event is and why it matters.
Impact level — High / Medium / Low expected market impact.
Confidence tier — Confirmed (scheduled), Expected (highly likely), or Speculative (model projection).
Source tag — Where the catalyst data originates.

⚠️

Catalyst dates are estimates and can change. Confirmed catalysts have a fixed schedule (e.g., earnings calendar); Speculative catalysts are AI projections based on patterns and should be treated with more caution.

Macro Briefing

A weekly AI-generated summary of the macroeconomic themes most likely to affect your opportunities.

📋 What the Briefing Covers

The Macro Briefing panel synthesizes current macro conditions into a concise, actionable summary. It covers:

Dominant macro themes (inflation, rate environment, credit conditions, liquidity)
Cross-asset implications for crypto, equities, and real estate
Risk events on the near-term horizon
How the current macro environment affects the opportunities in your feed

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The Macro Briefing is context, not a trading signal. Use it to calibrate conviction — a high-scoring opportunity in a supportive macro environment is stronger than the same score in a headwind.

AI Analyst

Ask the AI any question about the currently selected opportunity and get a detailed, grounded response.

🌙 How to Use the AI Analyst

Select an opportunity from the feed (click any row).
Choose the type of analysis you want from the dropdown: Bull Case, Bear Case, Entry Points, Risk Factors, or Full Thesis.
Click Analyze → to generate the response.

The AI searches current market data before responding, so analysis is grounded in today's news and prices — not just training data.

📋 Analysis Types

Bull Case — The strongest arguments for why this opportunity succeeds.
Bear Case — Key risks and reasons the thesis could fail.
Entry Points — Technical and fundamental levels to watch for entry.
Risk Factors — Comprehensive list of what could go wrong.
Full Thesis — End-to-end asymmetric analysis covering all dimensions.

⚠️

AI analysis is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The model can make errors and may not reflect the most current data at all times.

Watchlist

Save opportunities you want to track and return to them quickly from the feed tabs.

🔖 Adding to Your Watchlist

Hover any opportunity row and click the bookmark icon that appears in the top-right corner of the row. The icon turns blue when saved. You can also remove items from the Watchlist tab by clicking the × icon on each row.

📌 Viewing Your Watchlist

Switch to the Watchlist tab in the Opportunity Feed to see only your saved items. Items maintain their live conviction score and upside estimate so you can see how they change between sessions. Watchlist data is synced to your account and persists across devices.

Custom Signal Scanner

Scan any investment theme, sector, or asset class for asymmetric opportunities on demand. Free

🎯 How It Works

Type any theme into the scanner field — e.g., Defense Tech, DeFi Lending, Water Infrastructure, Nuclear Energy — and click Scan →. The AI searches current market data and returns the top asymmetric opportunities in that space right now, scored with the same 5-dimension framework as the main feed.

⚡ Quick-Scan Presets

Below the input field are two rows of one-click preset buttons organized by type:

Themes row — icon-labeled macro themes: Defense Tech, Nuclear Energy, DeFi Lending, Water Infrastructure, Space Economy, AI Infrastructure, Biotech Catalysts, and Rare Earth Mining.
Sectors row — icon-labeled market sectors: Technology, Healthcare, Energy, Financials, Industrials, Consumer, Real Estate, and Materials.

Presets are updated periodically to reflect emerging macro trends. Click any preset to instantly populate the search field and run a scan.

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The more specific your search, the more targeted the results. "AI Infrastructure – hyperscaler capex" will surface more focused plays than "AI" alone.

Market Valuations

Daily AI-curated valuation ratings for stocks, crypto, and real estate — plus on-demand analysis for any asset you want to check. Free

📊 What It Is

Every day, MoonWatch AI searches current market data to produce a fresh valuation snapshot of 10 equities and 5 crypto assets. Each asset is rated Undervalued, Fairly Valued, or Overvalued based on key fundamental metrics compared to their own 5-year historical averages. Ratings are grounded in live web search — not static formulas.

🔽 Using the Curated List

The left panel shows the full daily list with live prices. Use the filter buttons at the top to narrow the view:

All — every asset in the current scan
Undervalued ↓ — trading below historical norms (labeled CHEAP)
Fairly Valued → — trading near historical averages (labeled FAIR)
Overvalued ↑ — trading above historical norms (labeled PRICEY)

Each row shows the company name, ticker, live price, valuation ratios, and a one-sentence context note.

🔍 Analyze Any Asset

The right panel lets you check any asset on demand — not just what's in the daily list. Type a stock ticker (NVDA), crypto symbol (BTC), or a market description (Miami real estate) and click Analyze. The AI searches live data and returns a rating, key metrics, and a 2–3 sentence explanation of whether the asset looks cheap, fair, or pricey relative to historical norms. Available to all users.

📐 What the Metrics Mean

P/E (Price-to-Earnings) — How much you're paying per dollar of annual profit. High P/E means the market expects strong future growth; low P/E can signal undervaluation — or risk.
P/B (Price-to-Book) — Stock price vs the company's net asset value. Below 1× often signals deep value; a very high P/B means the market is pricing in significant intangibles or growth potential.
EV/EBITDA — Enterprise value relative to operating earnings. A lower ratio vs sector peers typically means cheaper on an operating-cash-flow basis.
vs Historical Avg % — How today's valuation compares to the asset's own 5-year average. −20% means it's trading 20% cheaper than its historical norm — a potential opportunity. +30% means 30% more expensive than usual.

⚠️

Valuation ratings are AI-generated using web search and are for informational purposes only — not financial advice. Metrics may be approximate. Always verify with primary sources before making investment decisions.

Portfolio Advisor

AI-powered allocation recommendations tailored to your risk profile, capital, and timeline. Premium

📐 What You Get

The Portfolio Advisor generates a personalized allocation plan using current MoonWatch opportunities. It takes into account:

Your risk profile (Conservative, Moderate, Aggressive, or Custom)
Your investable capital and time horizon
Your current holdings (optional — for positioning-aware recommendations)

The output includes specific allocation percentages across asset classes and individual opportunities, with rationale for each position.

⚙️ Custom Risk Sliders

Selecting the Custom risk profile unlocks individual sliders for each asset class. Set your own crypto/equity/real estate/cash split — the advisor will optimize within your stated constraints. Sliders must sum to 100%.

⚠️

Portfolio Advisor output is illustrative only — not personalized financial advice. It does not account for your tax situation, existing account types, or specific securities laws in your jurisdiction.

Is This Asymmetric?

Analyze any investment — one you've heard about, seen in the news, or are already holding — against MoonWatch's asymmetric criteria. Premium

🔬 How to Use It

Enter the investment name or ticker (e.g., NVDA, Bitcoin, Warehouse REIT).
Select the asset class — Equity, Crypto, Real Estate, Commodity, or Other.
Optionally add context about why you're considering it — this helps the AI give more relevant analysis.
Click Analyze for Asymmetric Potential →

📊 The Verdict Output

Results show the same 5-dimension conviction score as the main feed, plus:

An Asymmetric Verdict — Does it qualify?
Estimated upside potential vs downside risk ratio
Key bull and bear cases
Similar opportunities already in the MoonWatch feed for comparison

Performance Tracker

Log trades you made based on MoonWatch signals and track your real-world results over time.

📈 Logging a Trade

From the Performance Tracker tab, add a new trade by entering the asset, your entry price, position size, and the date. You can optionally link it to a MoonWatch signal opportunity so the tracker can compare your result against the original thesis. The form clears automatically after each entry so you can log the next trade immediately.

✏️ Editing a Trade

Any logged trade can be edited after the fact. Click the edit icon on a trade row to load it back into the form — update the amount, status, return value, or notes, then save. This is useful when a position closes and you want to record the final return or add context about what happened.

📊 What Gets Tracked

Open positions — Current unrealized P&L based on live prices
Closed trades — Final realized return with ROI badge
Overall portfolio performance — Aggregate metrics across all logged trades

Use this to measure whether acting on MoonWatch signals actually improves your returns over time.

MoonWatch Assistant

Your AI guide to getting the most from MoonWatch.

How to Open It

Look for the chat bubble button in the bottom-right corner of any page. Click it to open the Assistant panel. It slides up as a chat interface where you can ask questions in plain English and get instant answers about any part of the platform.

What It Can Help With

Explaining features — How any tool or section works
Conviction scores — What each signal dimension means and how scores are calculated
Platform navigation — Finding the right feature for your goal
Account & billing — Plan differences, founding pricing, and subscription questions

What It Cannot Do

Specific financial advice — The Assistant is a platform guide, not a financial advisor. It will not tell you to buy or sell anything.
Deep investment thesis — For a full web-search-grounded analysis of a specific opportunity, use the AI Analyst feature instead.

Tip: For deep investment analysis on a specific opportunity, use the AI Analyst feature in the dashboard — it searches live market data and generates a full thesis with catalysts, risk factors, and position sizing.

What Is Asymmetric Investing?

The core philosophy behind every signal MoonWatch produces.

⚖️ The Core Idea

Asymmetric investing means seeking situations where the potential upside is significantly larger than the potential downside. Instead of trying to predict markets, you look for structural setups where the risk/reward ratio is skewed in your favor — e.g., risking $1 to potentially make $5 or $10.

📊 How MoonWatch Displays R/R

Every opportunity card shows three numbers in the score column:

↑ Upside — AI-estimated price appreciation if the thesis plays out (e.g. 5–15×).
↓ Downside — AI-estimated max loss if the thesis fails (e.g. 20–35%).
R/R X:1 — The ratio of those two figures, computed as: (low-end upside gain %) ÷ (worst-case downside %). For example, a 5× upside (+400%) against a 25% downside gives R/R 16:1.

MoonWatch deliberately uses the conservative side of each range — the low upside and the high downside — so the displayed ratio understates rather than overstates the opportunity. A ratio above 5:1 is generally considered a strong asymmetric setup; above 10:1 is exceptional.

📐 Why It Works

You don't need to be right most of the time with asymmetric investing — you just need the wins to be much larger than the losses. A portfolio of asymmetric bets where you're right 40% of the time but average 4× gain can outperform a portfolio of symmetric bets where you're right 60% of the time but only average 1.5× gain.

🎯 What MoonWatch Looks For

MoonWatch's AI filters for four primary asymmetric setups:

Mispriced risk — The market is over-discounting downside, creating an entry opportunity.
Catalyst-driven repricing — A known event will force the market to reprice the asset.
Structural tailwinds — Long-term macro or demographic forces that compound over time.
Narrative lag — The market hasn't yet noticed a fundamental change in the business or asset.

Conviction Score

A 0–100 composite score measuring how well an opportunity meets MoonWatch's asymmetric criteria.

💯 Score Tiers

85–100

High Conviction

65–84

Moderate Signal

0–64

Watch & Wait

Only opportunities scoring 60+ appear in the main feed. Lower-scoring plays are filtered out.

🔢 What Drives the Score

The score is a weighted average of 5 sub-dimensions (see 5-D Framework). Higher weight is given to asymmetry ratio and catalyst clarity. The AI recalculates on each refresh using current market data, so scores can change between sessions as conditions evolve.

Horizons & Timing

MoonWatch classifies every opportunity by its expected time to catalyst.

🔴 Act Now — Short-Term

Opportunities tagged Act Now have a near-term catalyst — typically within days to a few weeks. These are time-sensitive: an earnings report, a product launch, a token unlock, or a regulatory decision. The window to position before the catalyst closes quickly. Higher volatility but faster resolution.

🔵 Long-Term — Structural Plays

Opportunities tagged Long-Term are multi-month to multi-year structural theses — demographic shifts, infrastructure build-outs, technology adoption curves, or regulatory tailwinds. These require patience but offer compound growth potential and lower execution urgency.

⚖️

A well-balanced approach uses both horizons: short-term plays provide regular opportunities to realize gains, while long-term plays form the foundation of compounding portfolio growth.

The 5-Dimension Framework

The five lenses MoonWatch uses to evaluate every opportunity for asymmetric potential.

1

Asymmetry Ratio

How large is the potential upside relative to the likely downside? An ideal asymmetric play has a 3:1 or better reward-to-risk ratio. This dimension carries the heaviest weight in the conviction score.

2

Catalyst Clarity

Is there a clear, identifiable event or inflection point that will force the market to reprice the asset? The more concrete and time-bound the catalyst, the higher this dimension scores.

3

Market Mispricing

Is the asset priced incorrectly relative to fundamentals or intrinsic value? This looks for situations where sentiment, fear, or information lag has created a gap between price and value.

4

Macro Tailwind

Does the broad macro environment support this opportunity? Interest rate direction, sector rotation, regulatory climate, and liquidity conditions are all factored in.

5

Narrative Momentum

Is sentiment shifting in favor of this asset? Narrative momentum captures whether the story is picking up traction — in news coverage, social signal, analyst upgrades, or institutional interest.

💡

Select any opportunity in the feed to see its individual dimension scores in the Conviction Breakdown panel on the right side of the dashboard.

Asset Classes

MoonWatch covers three major asset classes, each with distinct characteristics and risk profiles.

₿ Crypto / Tokens High Volatility

Cryptocurrencies, DeFi protocols, and blockchain tokens. Crypto opportunities typically carry the highest upside potential and the highest volatility. Catalysts often include protocol upgrades, exchange listings, regulatory developments, and macro risk appetite. 24/7 markets mean price-relevant events can happen at any time.

📊 Equity / Stocks

Public equities across all market caps and sectors. MoonWatch looks for mispriced companies with clear earnings or product catalysts, sector rotations, and structural growth stories that the broader market has yet to price in. Conviction scores for equities tend to weight catalyst clarity and macro tailwind more heavily.

🏠 Real Estate

REITs, real estate sectors (industrial, multifamily, data centers, self-storage), and geographic markets. Real estate opportunities tend to be longer-horizon plays driven by interest rate cycles, demographic shifts, and structural supply/demand imbalances. Lower volatility than crypto or small-cap equities but meaningful asymmetric setups still emerge.

Frequently Asked Questions

Quick answers to the most common questions about MoonWatch.

1 How often is the data refreshed?

The opportunity feed is refreshed on every page load and whenever you click the ↻ Refresh button. The AI performs a live market scan each time, so opportunities, scores, and catalysts reflect current conditions. The ticker strip updates continuously with live price feeds.

2 Is this financial advice?

No. MoonWatch is a research and education platform. Everything — signals, scores, theses, allocation suggestions, AI analysis — is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

3 What does "High Conviction" mean?

An opportunity is labeled High Conviction when its composite conviction score is 85 or above out of 100. This means it scores strongly across multiple asymmetric dimensions — particularly asymmetry ratio and catalyst clarity. High Conviction plays are tracked in the stat strip at the top of the dashboard.

4 How is the conviction score calculated?

The score is a weighted composite of the 5-Dimension Framework: Asymmetry Ratio, Catalyst Clarity, Market Mispricing, Macro Tailwind, and Narrative Momentum. Each dimension is scored 0–20 and then weighted, with Asymmetry Ratio and Catalyst Clarity carrying the most weight. The AI recalculates using live market data on each refresh.

5 What's the difference between free and premium features?

The core Dashboard — Opportunity Feed, Catalyst Alerts, Macro Briefing, AI Analyst, Freedom Calculator, Custom Signal Scanner, Performance Tracker, and Watchlist — is available to all users. Portfolio Advisor and Is This Asymmetric? are premium features that require a paid subscription.

6 How does the Freedom Calculator work?

Enter your Freedom Number (your target portfolio value) and your current portfolio value. MoonWatch calculates your progress percentage and, once set, appends a "Freedom Impact" chip to every opportunity showing how the AI-estimated upside could contribute to closing the gap — assuming a notional investment. It's a motivational planning tool, not a projection.

7 Can I trust the AI-estimated upside percentages?

Treat them as illustrative potential, not forecasts. The AI estimates what the upside could be if the thesis plays out — it does not predict probability of success or account for position sizing, taxes, or timing. Wide variance is expected; some plays outperform dramatically, others fail entirely.

8 Where is my watchlist and account data stored?

All account data — watchlist, trades, goals, and preferences — is stored securely in MoonWatch's cloud database, synced to your account. This means your data is available across devices and persists between sessions. You can request deletion of your account and all associated data from the Account settings page.

9 How do I take the product tour?

Look for the 🎯 Take the tour button at the top of your Getting Started checklist in the bottom-right corner of the dashboard. Clicking it launches a 5-step interactive walkthrough of the core features — it takes about 2 minutes and highlights the Freedom Calculator, Opportunity Feed, AI Analyst, Signal Scanner, and Performance Tracker. If you've already completed the tour and want to run it again, click the Restart feature tour button at the bottom of the Getting Started section in this Help modal.